Source: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn%3Ali%3AugcPost%3A6639636404810903553
On #Prediction: #Information & #Uncertainty: Is ‘Expected’ #News Really News?: #Events:
it is often the unexpected news which is going to have the biggest impact
‘#Uncertainty is the difference between the amount of information required to perform the task and the amount of information already possessed…’: https://lnkd.in/e4AdStc .
‘What we mean by #information? Roughly speaking, we say that we have gained information when we know something now that we didn’t know before, when ‘what we know’ has changed. In a technical sense, ‘information’ implies: that which enables us to make a #selection from a set of #possibilities or to narrow the range of possibilities about which *we* are #ignorant .’
[Hence one agent’s #BlackSwan can be other’s #WhiteSwan or #GraySwan.]
‘I have gained information when I know something that I didn’t know before: when what I #know has changed implying that in some circumstance or other my #expectations will be different… Information in fact could be defined in #actor-#language as that which alters my total #state of #adaptive #readiness in this #sense. What is internally imitated is NOT a #static #structure of #relations between #things, so much as the #dynamic #structure of #relations between #events.’:
https://lnkd.in/esxNrSr .
